Is There Anyone On Board Who Knows How To Fly A Plane?

April 23, 2015

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Airplane! 1980

Thursday, we enjoyed cruising at 18,000 plus in the Dow. And even though the flight attendants told us that the Captain turned off the seatbelt sign, notice they also added, when seated, we suggest you leave your seatbelt fastened, in case of turbulence.

What could create turbulence now? Poor earnings coming out of the big guns like Amazon, Google and Apple for starters. More news on the already stormy situation in the Middle East. Doubtful the Federal Reserve will do much to rock the boat, although as I keep writing, a modest rate rise seems likely and logical. Let’s face it, Gremlins come in many forms.

The 2015 metaphors, which began as fun ways to describe the market, have become so comfortably familiar and pretty dead on, let’s go through a quick review using the vernacular.

Modern Family check: Russell 2000s, although not as strong as the SPY or QQQs on Thursday, do appear to at least, be holding their own. So typical that the Semiconductors and Biotech ETFs show up when their needed to support the family, then rest when other sectors/groups take charge. Retail is basing out at these higher levels with more work to do. Regional Banks, hung in there with an inside day and still have my conviction that they are a great long term play for more upside.

Transportation did exactly what we anticipated it would do-rose into overhead resistance at the 50 and 100 Daily Moving Averages. I suspect Friday, it will deservedly rest and consolidate with an inside day.

The final metaphor, sheep and sheep pastures, suggests that as the indices have just visited the top of the trading ranges, they will remain safely within the boundaries of the herd rather than bust out or scatter too far beyond those boundaries at this time. However, do remember that even at cruising altitude, it pays to know where the exit signs are, just in case.

S&P 500 (SPY) Cleared but could not close above 211.27 the March 3rd high, typical of this year’s action.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed over 126.25 but could not clear the all-time high at 127.13, support down below at the 50 DMA 123.66

Dow (DIA) Confirmed Phase Change Back to BULLISH, 181.67 a huge point to clear with 178 key support to hold

Nasdaq (QQQ) Cleared the recent high of 109.42 but could not hold at that level on the close. 109.55 now resistance to clear and support at 107.73 the 10 DMA

XLF (Financials) Closed right on the 50 DMA giving us an unconfirmed phase change back to bullish. Needs to hold 24.24

KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day on the 10 DMA, key resistance at 41.95 and support at 40.76 the 50 DMA

SMH (Semiconductors) Gapped lower on the open and held support at the 50 DMA

IYT (Transportation) Getting some traction now over the 200 DMA with a nice rally to the 100 DAM at 160.17

IBB (Biotechnology) holding nicely over the 10 DMA at 360.59, next resistance is at 374.97

XRT (Retail) Back into the trading range between 100 and 102.50. Strong support at the 50 DMA at 99.52

IYR (Real Estate) Key support at 77.00 and needs to clear 78.20

ITB (US Home Construction) Big gap lower on the open yet held support at the 100 DMA at 26.57

GLD (Gold Trust) Unconfirmed recovery phase with an inside day. Still holding key support with overhead resistance to clear especially over 116.25

GDX (Gold Miners) Rallied to the 100 DMA with an inside day

USO (US Oil Fund) Consolidating just over the 100 DMA. Needs to hold 19.21 and clear 20.29

OIH (Oil Services) Today’s low now good support to hold

XLE (Energy) 83.23 resistance to clear and 81.53 support to hold

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Into resistance now around 50 to 51.07

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Held the 50 DMA with a inside day

UUP (Dollar Bull) Broke the 50 DMA giving us an unconfirmed warning phase

EEM (Emerging Markets) New 2015 high

EWP (Spain) Resistance at the 80 monthly at 36.32

EWW (Mexico) Watching this to get back over 60.00

EWG (Germany) Resistance at 29.73 the 50 DMA

RSX (Russia) 20.05 key resistance

BAL (Cotton) Futures gave a very nice move off of the 100 DMA

Improve Your Returns With 'Mish's Daily'

Michele'Mish' Schneider

Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:

  • Unique insight into the health and future trends in markets
  • Key trading levels for major ETFs
  • The 'Modern Family' advantage
  • Actionable trading ideas in stocks and ETFs across all asset classes
Subscribe Now!